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国债是否具有正的经济净效应是政府债务是否可持续的关键。分析日本国债对民间支出的经济效应可发现,日本国债对民间消费具有明显的促进作用,对民间投资的作用为先促进后阻碍。国债的大规模发行并不能从根本上解决日本经济增长动力不足的现实问题。对此,我国应审慎运用国债政策,提高国债资金的使用效率。
Whether the national debt has a positive net economic effect is the key to whether the government debt is sustainable or not. An analysis of the economic effects of Japanese government bonds on private expenditures shows that Japanese government bonds have a significant role in promoting private consumption and that the role of private investment in promoting non-government investment is hindered first. The large-scale issuance of government bonds can not fundamentally solve the real problem of Japan’s lack of motivation for economic growth. In this regard, China should prudently use the national debt policy to improve the efficiency of the use of treasury bonds.