一、经济波动、景气循环与宏观监测宏观经济监测预警系统,是利用一系列经济指标建立起来的反映宏观经济状况的“晴雨表”或“报警器”。它之所以能发挥监测和预警的作用,第一是因为经济本身存在周期波动;第二是因为在经济波动过程中,经济运行中的一些问题可以通过一些指标率先暴露出来。西方经济统计学家们为了满足宏观经济管理的需要,探求经济周期波动规律,早在一个世纪以前就 I. Economic Fluctuation, Business Cycle and Macro Monitoring The macroeconomic monitoring and early warning system is a “barometer” or “alarm” that reflects the macroeconomic conditions established by a series of economic indicators. The reason why it can play a monitoring and early warning role is that the economy itself has periodic fluctuations. The second reason is that during the process of economic fluctuations, some problems in the economic operation can be exposed through some indicators. Western economic statisticians in order to meet the needs of macroeconomic management, to explore the law of economic cycle fluctuations, as early as a century ago