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目的利用“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”全国监测点数据估计中国大陆地区2012年肝癌死亡情况。方法按照国家统计局分类方法将全国分为东、中、西三层,应用非均质表面估计模型(MSN)估计全国、分地区和分省的肝癌死亡率和死亡数。结果 2012年全国肝癌死亡率为26.12/10万,死亡人数为350 886.5人,中部地区肝癌死亡率最高30.14/10万,东部和西部地区分别为24.55/10万和24.07/10万;死亡人数东部最高136 190.02人,中部次之127 977.40人,西部最低87 626.74人。从分省的结果来看,肝癌死亡率估计值最高的5个省份是广西、重庆、黑龙江、吉林和上海,死亡率(1/10万)分别为46.23、41.49、41.38、40.96和37.82。肝癌死亡数最高的5个省份是广东、山东、河南、四川和广西,其值分别为28 639.7、25 293.93、24 692.93、24 561.92和21 289.84。结论应用MSN模型能够充分利用监测点的数据,相对准确地估算全国肝癌死亡情况,更好地为公共卫生决策服务。
Objective To estimate the death of liver cancer in mainland China in 2012 from the data of National Disease Surveillance and Control Information System of China. Methods According to the classification method of National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country was divided into the east, the middle and the west, and the heterogeneity surface estimation model (MSN) was used to estimate the death rate and death rate of liver cancer nationwide, sub-region and province. Results In 2012, the national death rate of liver cancer was 26.12 / 100 000 with a death toll of 350 886.5. The highest death rate of liver cancer was 30.14 / 100 000 in the central region and 24.55 / 100 000 and 24.07 / 100 000 in the eastern and western regions, respectively; The highest number was 136,190.02, followed by 127,977.40 by the middle and 87,626.74 by the west. From the results of the sub-provinces, the five provinces with the highest estimated liver cancer death rates were Guangxi, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Shanghai, with the death rates (1/10) of 46.23, 41.49, 41.38, 40.96 and 37.82 respectively. The five provinces with the highest number of liver cancer deaths were Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and Guangxi with values of 28 639.7, 25 293.93, 24 692.93, 24 561.92 and 21 289.84 respectively. Conclusion The application of MSN model can take full advantage of the data of monitoring points, accurately estimate the death of liver cancer in China and better serve public health decision-making.