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产业结构调整可以促进城镇化水平的提高,城镇化水平提高也可以促进产业结构的调整,二者之间存在内在联系。本文采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数方法和方差分解定量分析了1984-2013年青海省城镇化与产业结构之间的互动发展状况。结果表明,1、青海省城镇化与产业结构存在着长期均衡关系;2、城镇化和非农产业之间格兰杰因果检验结果显示,二者存在相互影响关系,但目前还未形成良性互动关系;3、从脉冲响应函数可以看出,在短期,非农产业产值结构和非农产业就业结构的外部冲击都会对于城镇化带来的影响。城镇化的外部冲击也会对非农产业产值结构和就业结构带来影响,总体来看都是有利于城镇化和非农产业发展的。
The adjustment of industrial structure can promote the improvement of urbanization level. The improvement of urbanization can also promote the adjustment of industrial structure, and there is an internal connection between the two. In this paper, the co-integration test, Granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response function method and variance decomposition were used to quantitatively analyze the interaction between urbanization and industrial structure in Qinghai Province from 1984 to 2013. The results show that: 1, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and industrial structure in Qinghai Province; 2. The result of Granger causality test between urbanization and non-agricultural industries shows that there exists an interaction between the two and there is no positive interaction 3. From the impulse response function, we can see that in the short run, the external impact of output structure of non-agricultural industries and employment structure of non-agricultural industries will have an impact on urbanization. The external impact of urbanization will also have an impact on the output structure and employment structure of non-agricultural industries, which are generally conducive to the urbanization and the development of non-agricultural industries.