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本文采用新一代中尺度数值天气模式WRF和分布式水文模型GBHM,开展了基于气象水文耦合的三峡入库洪水预报研究。通过2000年汛期降雨预报试验,检验了WRF模式对不同预见期的降雨预报效果;通过2000年汛期的7场洪水的预报试验,评价了气象水文耦合预报模型对三峡入库洪水的预报精度。结果表明,基于数值天气预报的三峡入库洪水预报具有一定精度并且能够显著延长洪水预报的预见期,气象水文耦合模型在洪水预报中具有应用潜力。
In this paper, a new generation of meso-scale numerical weather model WRF and distributed hydrological model GBHM are used to study flood forecast of the Three Gorges reservoir based on meteorological and hydrological coupling. Through the rainstorm forecast experiment in flood season in 2000, the WRF model was used to predict the rainfall forecast effect in different forecast periods. According to the prediction experiment of seven floods in flood season in 2000, the forecast accuracy of meteorological and hydrological coupled forecast model for the flood in the Three Gorges Reservoir was evaluated. The results show that the flood forecasting of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on numerical weather forecasting has a certain accuracy and can significantly prolong the forecast period of flood forecasting. The meteorological and hydrological coupling model has potential application in flood forecasting.