目的采用ARIMA模型对青岛市2013年手足口病发病趋势进行预测,为该病早期防控提供科学依据。方法应用SPSS18.0软件对青岛市2008年1月-2013年2月的手足口病逐月发病数建立ARIMA模型。结果建立ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12模型,其中BIC=12.338,Ljung-Box统计量检验残差序列为白噪声序列。结论 ARIMA模型可用于手足口病发病的预测。 Objective To predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2013 in Qingdao by ARIMA model and provide a scientific basis for early prevention and control of the disease. Methods The ARIMA model was established by SPSS18.0 software on the monthly incidence of HFMD in Qingdao from January 2008 to February 2013. Results The ARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0) 12 model was established, in which BIC = 12.338. The Ljung-Box statistic test residual sequence was white noise sequence. Conclusion ARIMA model can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD.