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地震活动趋势判断是一个十分复杂的难题,我们需要从多方面进行探索与研究.本文采用1900-2013年伊朗地区≥6.7级强震数据,对伊朗地区地震活动进行趋势判断.在可公度方法的基础上,利用蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系进一步分析时间序列的对称性,再通过太阳黑子活动的周期对照,判断出2016a发生下一次强震的信号较强.利用震中空间区位的迁移研究发现其空间迁移经纬向具有对称性和同步的突变性,判断认为发生强震的位置在伊朗东部北纬34度左右地区,该趋势判断对可公度法的探索研究具有一定贡献意义.
Judging the trend of seismic activity is a very complex problem and we need to explore and study from many aspects.In this paper, we use the strong earthquakes ≥6.7 in Iranian area from 1900 to 2013 to judge the trend of seismic activity in Iran, , The symmetry of the time series is further analyzed by using the butterfly structure diagram and the consonant structure, and the signal of the next strong earthquake is judged to be stronger in 2016a through the periodic comparison of sunspot activities. By using the migration of the epicentral spatial location It is found that the location of strong earthquakes is about 34 degrees north latitude in the east of Iran. This trend judgment has some contribution to the exploration of commensurability method.