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以甘肃经济发展与环境之间关系的研究为例,根据甘肃省“十一五”节能减排任务,建立了主要污染物排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型。通过该模型计量了2007-2008年主要环境污染走势曲线,预测了节能减排以后的控制总量。模型显示:在2007年和2008年甘肃省的废水排放量将呈现明显的上升趋势,固体废物亦呈现上升趋势,废气排放有明显的下降趋势;同时明确了甘肃省“十一五”期间的减排形势,其中废水与固体废物的减排任务较重,二氧化硫等废气减排任务相对较轻。建议选择重点行业重点污染物作为试点进行减排新技术的研发和推广,同时大力推广省内外已有的循环经济发展的成功经验,从深度和广度双向拓展其应用范围等。
Taking the study of the relationship between economic development and environment in Gansu Province as an example, an EKC model of emission of major pollutants is established according to the “Eleventh Five-year” energy saving and emission reduction task of Gansu Province. The model measures the trend of major environmental pollution in 2007-2008 and predicts the total amount of control after energy conservation and emission reduction. The model shows that the discharge of waste water in Gansu Province will show a clear upward trend in 2007 and 2008, the solid waste also shows an upward trend and the emission of exhaust gas shows a clear downward trend. At the same time, it is clear that during Gansu Province during the 11th Five-Year Plan period Of the emission reduction situation, of which the task of reducing emissions of waste water and solid waste heavier, emissions of sulfur dioxide and other emission reduction task is relatively light. It is suggested that key pollutants in key industries should be selected as pilot projects for R & D and promotion of new technologies for emission reduction. At the same time, we should vigorously promote the successful experience of existing recycling economy both at home and abroad, and expand its application scope both in depth and breadth.