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2011年下半年,由于高端消费仍然旺盛,保障房建设以及“十二五”开局之年的大量基础设施投入建设带动投资增速不减,中国经济“硬着陆”风险尚小。但是,由于占CPI权重较高的猪肉价格仍在上涨,非食品价格也进入历史上涨最快时期,通胀峰值可能推延至三季度出现。抗通胀仍是今年经济工作的主要任务,紧缩货币政策还需坚持。在紧缩货币政策方面,将有适当微调,即优先选择对经济增长影响小,抗通胀效果更加明显的价格型工具。预计今年年底之前,央行至少还会有两次加息,一次准备金率上调。
In the second half of 2011, due to the high-end consumption is still strong, protection of housing construction and a large number of infrastructure investment in the “second five” start-up investment growth driven unabated, the Chinese economy “hard landing” risk is small. However, the price of pork, which accounts for the higher CPI, is still rising. Non-food prices have also entered the fastest period of history. The inflation peak may be delayed until the third quarter. Anti-inflation is still the main task of this year’s economic work. Tightening monetary policy needs to be adhered to. Tightening monetary policy, there will be appropriate fine-tuning, that is, give priority to select the economic growth impact of small, anti-inflation effect more obvious price-based instruments. Expected by the end of this year, the central bank will at least raise interest rates twice, once the reserve ratio increase.