论文部分内容阅读
基于包含异质性技能的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,文章考察了我国劳动力市场的就业动态。技术冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,技术进步引起高技能劳动力就业和新雇佣数量的增加,但引起低技能劳动力就业和新雇佣数量的下降;货币政策冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数则表明,尽管积极的货币政策冲击引起了就业的增长,但就业增长主要来源于低技能劳动力群体。外生冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数均显示出同一冲击下不同技能劳动力的就业呈现出不同的动态反应,这意味着考虑技能差异的模型可能更为合理。最后,贝叶斯冲击分解的结果表明,外生冲击下低技能劳动力的就业表现出更大的波动特征。因此,提升产业的整体技术水平以及对低技能劳动力进行培训,将有助于提高对劳动力市场做出反应的货币政策机制的效果。
Based on the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous skills, this paper examines the employment dynamics of China’s labor market. The Bayesian impulse response function of the technical shock shows that technological advances have led to an increase in the employment of highly skilled labor and the number of new hires, but have caused a decline in the number of low-skilled labor jobs and new hires; the Bayesian impulse response function of monetary policy shocks has shown Despite the employment growth caused by the positive monetary policy shocks, the employment growth mainly comes from the low-skilled workforce. The Bayesian impulse response function of exogenous shocks shows that the employment of different skilled labor under the same shock presents different dynamic responses, which means that the model considering skill difference may be more reasonable. Finally, the Bayesian impact decomposition shows that the employment of low-skilled workers under exogenous shocks shows greater volatility. Therefore, upgrading the overall skill level of the industry and training low-skilled labor will help to increase the effectiveness of monetary policy mechanisms that respond to the labor market.