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笔者采用扩展的Nerlove模型,实证检验了2001—2014年我国10个大豆主产省(自治区)的大豆供给反应。结果表明:上期大豆播种面积、上期大豆价格和替代作物与大豆比价是影响我国大豆供给的主要因素;大豆短期价格供给弹性要小于长期,说明我国大豆生产调整存在时滞;生产成本、进口量均对我国大豆供给具有负面影响;大豆调控政策对于稳定大豆供给未发挥明显作用。因此,国家要健全大豆价格监测预警机制、完善大豆产业扶持政策、坚持非转基因发展方向,实施差异化战略。
The author uses an extended Nerlove model to empirically test the soybean supply response of 10 major soybean-producing provinces (autonomous regions) in China during 2001-2014. The results showed that: the sown area of soybean in the previous period, the price of soybean in the previous period and the ratio of replacement crops to soybean were the main factors affecting the supply of soybean in China; the supply elasticity of short-term soybean was less than that in the long term, indicating that there was a time lag in the adjustment of soybean production in China; the production cost, Which has a negative impact on China’s soybean supply. Soybean control policies have not played a significant role in stabilizing soybean supply. Therefore, the state should improve the soybean price monitoring and early warning mechanism, improve the soybean industry support policies, adhere to the non-GMO development direction, and implement the differentiation strategy.