目的预测我国新生儿出生缺陷率的变化趋势,为卫生部门制定相应的防制对策提供理论依据。方法利用GM(1,1)灰色模型对我国新生儿出生缺陷率进行拟合和变化趋势预测。结果根据我国以医院为基础的出生缺陷监测结果建立的灰色预测模型为:模型的平均误差率为1.8%,该模型精度为优(C=0.1955,P=1.000),预测效果好。结论近六年我国出生缺陷发生率总体上呈上升趋势,卫生管理部门应采取更有效的措施以防制出生缺陷的发生。 Objective To predict the changing trend of birth defects in newborns in our country and provide the theoretical basis for formulating the corresponding prevention and control measures in the health department. Methods The GM (1,1) gray model was used to fit and forecast the birth defect rate of newborns in China. Results According to the monitoring results of hospital-based birth defects in our country, the gray prediction model was established. The average error rate of the model was 1.8%. The accuracy of the model was excellent (C = 0.1955, P = 1.000) and the prediction effect was good. Conclusions The incidence of birth defects in our country has been on the rise in recent six years. Health administrative departments should take more effective measures to prevent birth defects.