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施工导流风险评价是导流工程设计的重要依据,应综合考虑水文、水力等方面的不确定性影响。针对传统导流风险计算仅考虑不确定性因素的单一概率分布并固定分布参数值、忽略了分布及参数的不确定性的问题,基于对多元不确定性因素的Monte-Carlo仿真,综合考虑导流系统中水文和水力因素的分布和分布参数的不确定性,深入分析了导流系统风险率的不确定性。结果表明,水文与水力因素的参数不确定性对导流风险率的计算有较大影响,考虑水文与水力参数不确定性计算所得的导流风险率服从正态分布。
The risk assessment of construction diversion is an important basis for the design of diversion engineering. The uncertainties in hydrology and hydraulics should be considered synthetically. Aiming at the problem that the traditional diversion risk calculation only considers the single probability distribution of uncertainty factors and fixes the distribution of parameter values, the distribution and parameter uncertainty are ignored. Based on the Monte-Carlo simulation of multivariate uncertainty factors, The uncertainty of the distribution and distribution parameters of hydrological and hydraulic factors in the flow system, and the uncertainty of the risk ratio of the diversion system. The results show that the parameter uncertainty of hydrology and hydraulic factors has a great influence on the calculation of diversion risk rate, and the diversion risk rate obeying the normal distribution considering the uncertainty of hydrology and hydraulic parameters.