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北京城市副中心(通州区)承接着北京中心城区的非首都核心功能,其快速建设发展亟需对区域内土地利用演变格局的科学认识.本文分析了改革开放40年来通州区土地利用演变格局,根据土地利用历史演变特征与城市发展规划目标,结合文旅发展驱动要素,运用FLUS模型模拟城镇化加速、减速和可持续发展3种情景下2035年北京城市副中心(通州区)土地利用空间分布格局.结果表明:(1)北京城市副中心(通州区)以城镇发展建设为主,1980—2010年高速城镇化阶段形成“沿六环顺运河”的城市扩张格局,2010—2020年低速城镇化阶段用地分布稳定,通州区形成从西北至东南城乡分异、土地集约化发展格局,副中心作为通州区城镇化的典型区域具有与通州整体相似的时空演变特征;(2)到2035年,3种情景间土地利用变化幅度和空间分布存在显著差异,城镇可持续发展情景下生态用地面积与分布最优,有利于实现城市可持续发展.在与三大副中心分区规划的契合程度分析中,可持续发展情景下预测模拟与市政府发布的《北京城市副中心控制性详细规划(街区层面)(2016—2035年)》(简称《规划》)用地高度契合,但文化旅游功能区和宜居生活风貌区中模拟预测与《规划》预期存在一定偏差,城市建设过程中其内部的生态用地面积仍需提升;(3)通州区未来可能存在东南部城乡衔接不紧密、南北乡镇发展失衡等潜在风险,在发展过程中需进一步关注.模型的预测模拟结果可为北京城市副中心(通州区)建设和谐宜居之都提供一定的数据和方法支撑.“,”Beijing Municipal Administrative Center (Beijing MC) in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing\'s central urban area, and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scien- tific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region. This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years, from 1980 to 2020. According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals, combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development, the Future Land-use Simulation (FLUS) model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC (Tongzhou District) in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration, deceleration and sustainable development. The results show three major trends. (1) Beijing MC (Tongzhou District) is dominated by urban development and construction. During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010, the urban expansion pattern of “along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal” was formed. During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020, the land distribution was stable, and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast. As a typical area of Tongzhou Dis- trict\'s urbanization, Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole. (2) By 2035, there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution. The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sus- tainable development scenario are optimal, which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development. In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans, the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the “Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning (Block Level) (2016–2035)” (hereinafter referred to as “Planning”) issued by the municipal government. However, there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding “Planning” expectations. During the urban construction process, the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased. (3) Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast. Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process. The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the con- struction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC (Tongzhou District).