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1975年辽南地震曾被我国地震工作者预报了。然而1978年5月18日的强余震在震前却毫无觉察。我们发现强余震与主震位于同一个震源断裂带上,震源深度相近,震源机制也几乎是相同的。这些共同点决定了它们在预报指标上必然也有共同之处。本文应用调制模式,较好地解释了辽南主震和强余震的时间预报。调制模式指出,在大地震前,包括震源区在内的广大区域已处于不稳定状态。在这种情况下,外因能够调制震源区和其附近的过程。这种被调制了的震源过程所产生的前兆与外因是同步的。当发现这种同步性时,我们就应当警惕地震的发生。文中用水氡、地气和水位变化与外因的同步性,具体讨论了主震和余震的发生时间。
The 1975 South China Earthquake was predicted by our earthquake workers. However, the strong aftershocks of May 18, 1978 did not find any evidence before the earthquake. We find that the strong aftershocks are located on the same source fault zone as the main shocks, and the focal depths are similar and the focal mechanisms are almost the same. These commonalities determine that they necessarily have something in common with the forecast indicator. In this paper, the modulation mode is used to better explain the time prediction of main aftershocks and strong aftershocks in southern Liaoning Province. Modulation patterns indicate that a large area including the source area has been in an unstable state before the great earthquake. In this case, the external source can modulate the process in and around the source zone. The precursors to this modulated source process are synchronized with the external cause. When this synchronization is found, we should be wary of earthquakes. In this paper, the synchronicity of radon, groundwater and water level changes and external factors is used to discuss the occurrence time of main shock and aftershock.