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对国际投资(FDI)和国际贸易相互关系的研究受到日益关注,它有助于政府在制定对外经济政策中得到借鉴,而将该研究纳入国家宏观战略则使政策更具有针对性和可操作性。边际优势战略在日本战后经济快速发展中起到关键作用,而具有很多相似经济特征的中国对此更应该认识和借鉴。本文以母国对外投资与对外贸易为对象,通过统计描述、断点检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,证实了日本在战后至1997年经济危机前对东亚一直采取边际优势战略,揭示了在边际优势战略下,母国投资对出口具有单向因果关系,投资与进口具有双向因果关系,投资与进口的关系比与出口的关系更密切,同时也反映出“东亚模式”和“雁行模式”的内在联系。
Research on the interrelationship between international investment (FDI) and international trade is receiving more and more attention. It helps the government learn from the formulation of foreign economic policies, and incorporates the research into the national macro-strategy to make policies more pertinent and operable . The strategy of marginal advantage plays a key role in the rapid economic development of Japan in the post-war period, and China, which has many similar economic characteristics, should know more about this. In this paper, the home-country foreign investment and foreign trade as the object, through statistical description, breakpoint test, Granger causality test and other methods, confirmed Japan from the war to 1997 before the economic crisis in East Asia has been to take a marginal advantage strategy revealed in In the marginal advantage strategy, home-country investment has a one-way causal relationship with exports, and investment and imports have a two-way causal relationship. The relationship between investment and imports is more closely related to exports than export, and it also reflects the “East Asian Model” and “ Mode ”of the intrinsic link.