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本文首先建立了外贸顺差和FDI影响货币供应,进而影响货币化率的理论模型。模型表明:外贸顺差、FDI、存款准备金率和现金存款比率是影响货币化率的主要因素。同时,运用1988-2004年中国的外贸顺差、FDI和货币化率等有关数据进行了回归分析、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验。实证检验结果与理论模型的结论高度一致。基本结论是:1988-2004年间,外贸顺差、FDI的大幅增加是我国货币化率大幅上升的最主要的原因;法定存款准备金率与货币化率呈显著的负相关关系;CM1与货币化率呈负相关关系。
This paper first establishes the theoretical model of trade surpluses and the impact of FDI on the money supply, thus affecting the monetization rate. The model shows that trade surplus, FDI, deposit reserve ratio and cash deposit ratio are the main factors affecting the monetization rate. At the same time, using the data of China’s trade surpluses, FDI and monetization rates from 1988 to 2004, regression analysis, cointegration test and Granger causality test were carried out. The empirical test results are highly consistent with the theoretical model. The basic conclusion is that between 1988 and 2004, the trade surplus and the sharp increase of FDI are the main reasons for the substantial increase of the monetization rate in our country. The statutory deposit reserve ratio has a significant negative correlation with the monetization rate. The CM1 and the monetization rate A negative correlation.