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本文比较了文献中主要的可操纵性应计利润模型在中国的应用,希望通过一个直接的、系统的实证检验,研究这些模型在中国的适用性。我们使用的数据是手工收集的由中国证监会等监管部门裁定的实际发生盈余管理样本,考虑的模型包括基本Jones模型、修正Jones模型、Kothari模型、DD模型和修正DD模型的不同具体设定共16个模型。研究结果显示:所有考察的模型都能帮助识别是否进行盈余操纵事件;但只有几个使用总应计利润作为被解释变量的模型能解释盈余操纵的幅度,能帮助预测是否进行盈余操纵以及盈余操纵的幅度。在这些模型中,基于总应计利润并带截距项的两步计算的修正Jones模型的效果最好。我们还发现,同时使用基于总应计利润作为被解释变量的模型和基于流动应计利润的模型可以显著地提高预测效率。
This paper compares the application of the major manipulative accrual profit model in the literature in China and hopes to study the applicability of these models in China through a direct and systematic empirical test. The data we use is manually collected samples of actual earnings management determined by regulatory authorities such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The models considered include the basic Jones model, the modified Jones model, the Kothari model, the DD model, and the revised DD model. 16 models. The results of the study show that all models examined can help identify whether earnings manipulation events occur; however, only a few models that use total accruals as explanatory variables can explain the extent of earnings manipulation and can help predict whether to perform earnings manipulation and earnings manipulation. Amplitude. In these models, the modified Jones model based on the two-step calculation of total accruals with intercepts works best. We also found that the simultaneous use of a model based on total accruals as an explanatory variable and a model based on mobile accruals can significantly improve forecasting efficiency.