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【目的】借助云服务概念簇数量的变化探究云服务当前的发展状况及其未来趋势。【方法】逐一抓取近12年Google搜索引擎收录云服务概念簇的词条数,采用时间序列分析法进行研究。【结果】云服务可分为陡增型、脉冲型和波动型三类。陡增型云服务会继续增长,但增长趋势会减缓;脉冲型云服务出现增长趋势的可能性不大;波动型云服务未来的发展走向不稳定。【局限】只从时间维度来分析云服务的发展趋势,如果要获取更加可靠的结果,需要结合政治、经济、社会等环境因素共同考量。【结论】云服务从实验室迈入市场,今后可能向着服务集中化管理方向发展,特定行业会有个性化定制的云服务。
[Objective] To explore the current development of cloud services and its future trends with the change of the number of concept clusters of cloud services. 【Method】 One by one to crawl nearly 12 years Google search engine included cloud service concept of the number of terms, the use of time series analysis method. 【Results】 Cloud services can be divided into three types: steep increase, impulse and fluctuation. Steep cloud services will continue to grow, but the growth trend will slow down; impulsive cloud services are unlikely to increase; the volatility cloud services are destabilized in the future. [Limitations] Analyze the development trend of cloud services only from the time dimension. If you want to get more reliable results, you need to consider the political, economic, social and other environmental factors together. 【Conclusion】 Cloud services from the laboratory into the market, the future may focus on the direction of service management development, specific industries will have customized cloud services.