我们现在对2017年的展望,就是经济可能是平稳下行,通胀温和上升。政策的不确定性仍然比较大,股市相对看好。微观见闻和感受在讲股市投资机会之前,我想先分享几个2016年的微观的见闻和感受。2016年3月份传统开工旺季时,我们周期研究员到山西调研煤矿开工情况,发现小产能企业大量关闭,大产能企业开始比较严格执行供给侧结构性改革任务,有市场自发出清的成分在里面,但行政力量肯定是发挥了关键作用。当时动力煤的价格相对2015年年底已经涨了20%, Our current outlook for 2017 is that the economy may be steadily declining and inflation moderately rising. The uncertainty of the policy is still relatively large, the stock market is relatively optimistic. Micro News and Feelings Before talking about investment opportunities in the stock market, I’d like to share with you some of 2016’s micro-insights and feelings. In March 2016, when the traditional start-up season was approaching, our cycle researcher went to Shanxi to investigate the start-up of coal mines and found that a large number of small-scale production enterprises closed down. Large-capacity enterprises began to strictly carry out the supply-side structural reform tasks with spontaneous and clear components of the market. But the executive force certainly played a key role. At that time, the price of thermal coal had risen by 20% from the end of 2015,