人口流动会给地方财政收支行为带来多重影响。本文通过一个包含人口流动因素的地方公共品需求决策模型,对中国目前的地方公共品供求失衡关系进行了实证考察,研究发现地方公共支出存在着显著的惯性特征。地方公共品需求的税收价格弹性大于零,这种反常结果可能正表明地方公共服务消费中的户籍歧视会加剧地方公共品的供求失衡问题。行政管理服务的拥挤程度总体上要高于文教卫服务,且在东部省份的行政管理服务的拥挤程度更高,这反映目前地方公共服务的消费壁垒主要是在教育、卫生和福利转移等具有排他性的公共服务项目上。本文的研究为中国的规范地方政府预算制度、加大地区间横向财政转移提供了一个直接的经验证据。 Migration will bring multiple impacts on local revenue and expenditure. In this paper, we make an empirical study of the current imbalanced relationship between supply and demand of public goods in China through a decision-making model of local public goods demand that includes population migration. The study finds that there is a significant inertia characteristic of local public expenditure. The price elasticity of local public goods demand is greater than zero. Such anomalous results may indicate that household discrimination in local public service consumption will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand of local public goods. The crowding of administrative services is generally higher than that of cultural and educational services, and the crowding of administrative services in the eastern provinces is higher. This reflects that the current local public service consumption barriers are mainly of exclusivity in education, health and welfare transfer On the public service project. The research in this paper provides a direct empirical evidence for regulating the budgetary system of local governments in China and increasing the horizontal fiscal transfers between regions.