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全球经济增长速度可能在2015年第四季度出现小幅回升,但下行风险仍然存在。预计2015年第四季度中国的GDP增长率保持在6.9%,但2016年将下降到6.6%。这一轮增长减速的背后有周期性因素,但更重要的是结构性因素,即随着经济发展水平的提高,增长潜力回落。本文提出四项建议,一是建立新的宏观调控体系,从追求增长的“点目标”转向区间调控。二是积极支持创新、创业,推动产业升级。三是大力推进国有企业的市场化改革。四是将防范金融风险作为当前经济政策的一个重点。
The global economic growth rate may slightly rebound in the fourth quarter of 2015, but downside risks still exist. China’s GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2015, but it will decline to 6.6% in 2016. Behind this round of growth slowdown there are cyclical factors, but more importantly structural factors, that is, as the level of economic development, growth potential declined. This paper puts forward four suggestions. The first one is to establish a new macro-control system and shift from “point target ” in the pursuit of growth to the regulation and control of areas. The second is to actively support innovation and entrepreneurship and promote industrial upgrading. Third, vigorously promote the market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises. Fourth, take precautionary measures against financial risks as one of the priorities of the current economic policy.