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GDP与居民收入同步增长是一个非常复杂的巨型系统。文章以湖北省1998～2010年数据为依据,建立GDP与居民收入系统动力学模型,从调整重轻工业结构比、投资消费结构比入手,仿真预测(1)重轻工业比重65:35,(2)投资率50%,(3)轻重工业比重65:35、投资率50%等三种情景下居民收入与GDP增长的变化趋势。研究结果表明,若政府不采取任何措施,经济按现有状况运行,居民收入与GDP在未来五年难以实现同步增长,但在第三种情景下居民收入与GDP增长能于2013年实现同步。因此,建议在初次分配中,以提高劳动收入份额为突破口,通过提高轻工业以及服务业比重等来实现居民收入与GDP的同步增长。
The simultaneous growth of GDP and household income is a very complex giant system. Based on the data from 1998 to 2010 in Hubei Province, this paper establishes the system dynamics model of GDP and resident income. It starts with adjusting the structure ratio of light and light industries and the structure of investment and consumption. The simulation predicts that (1) the proportion of heavy and light industries is 65:35, (2) Investment rate of 50%, (3) the proportion of light and heavy industries 65:35, investment rate of 50% of the three scenarios residents income and GDP growth trends. The results show that if the government does not take any measures to run the economy according to the current situation and the income and GDP growth in the next five years is difficult to achieve synchronous growth, but in the third scenario residents income and GDP growth can be synchronized in 2013. Therefore, it is suggested that in the initial distribution, to increase the labor income share as a breakthrough point, to realize the simultaneous growth of household income and GDP through raising the proportion of light industry and service industries.