首先对磨损量的分布进行了计算分析，得出了体积磨损量服从正态分布的结论，然后提出了模糊磨损失效状态的概念，给出了只考虑磨损随机性和同时考虑随机性与模糊性的磨损失效概率的计算方法，讨论了不同参数的变化对磨损安全的影响。此计算方法不仅可以用于单个失效模式，而且可以推广至系统分析的多个失效模式。 First of all, the distribution of the wear volume is calculated and analyzed, and the conclusion that the volume wear volume obeys the normal distribution is obtained. Then, the concept of the fuzzy wear failure state is put forward. Only considering the randomness of the wear and considering the randomness and fuzziness Wear failure probability of the calculation method to discuss the impact of changes in different parameters on the wear and tear safety. This calculation method can be used not only for a single failure mode, but also for multiple failure modes analyzed by the system.