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1 前言 现在已经开始以联系现代地球科学、工程技术和社会科学知识的交叉学科的方式,利用损失评估技术来评估包括地震在内的环境灾害的后果。过去,已经利用损失模型对灾害进行过描绘和评估,以满足保险业务和其它社会团体委托人的需要,并供政府应急部门管理人员进行规划使用。虽然这些使用者的需要不同,但是为了预测经济损失和维护公众的安全,他们通常要求了解的重大事件是类似的,即那些对当地公众和经济冲击最大的事件。过去20年里,根据可用的数据和“专家意见”模型,已经描绘了大量的单个事件。虽然这些损失研究为保险业务工作者和减灾规划人员只起了有限的作用,但它们不久将被利用改进后的数据、经验模型和地理信启、系统的通过计算机得到的损失评估所代替。 在北岭地震期间,正在发展着一种基于地理信息系统的系统,该系统是在给定一个地震的震源参数条件下,用来模拟建筑物和生命线破坏,以及评估接近实时的伤亡人数。这一系统,即地震破坏震后早期评估方法(EPEDT)从当地地震台网接收实时震源信息触发后,就开始计算损失估算值,它将利用断层和地震活动性数据确定一个地震的最可能震源的位置,利用可用的地面运动模型和土层放大模型估算受冲击区内的预期烈度图;然后,将这些烈度重叠到包括该区域中建筑
1 Foreword It has now begun to assess the consequences of environmental disasters, including earthquakes, using loss assessment techniques in an interdisciplinary way that links modern geosciences, engineering and social sciences. In the past, disaster models have been used to portray and assess disasters to meet the needs of insurers and other social group clients, and to be used by government emergency department managers for planning. Although the needs of these users vary, the major events that they often require to understand are the same for predicting economic losses and for keeping the public safe, ie, those events that have the greatest impact on the local public and the economy. Over the past two decades, a large number of single events have been delineated based on available data and “expert opinion” models. Although these loss studies play only a limited role for insurance practitioners and disaster reduction planners, they will soon be replaced by improved data, empirical models and geographic information, and systematic computer-based loss assessments. During the Northridge earthquake, a GIS-based system was developed that simulates the destruction of buildings and lifelines, given the hypocenter parameters of an earthquake, and assesses the number of casualties near real-time. This system, triggered by the EPEDT receiving real-time source information from a local seismic network, begins to calculate the loss estimate, which will use the fault and seismicity data to determine the most likely source of an earthquake The available ground motion model and the soil magnification model are used to estimate the expected intensity map in the impacted area; these intensities are then overlaid to include the area in which the building