CPI指数一直是国内领导层心中一个痛,今年上半年虽然央行一直在收紧银根调控物价,但目前来看由于生猪出栏下降造成猪价上扬,令物价调控效果不佳,物价指数在7月份仍很难出现拐点。政策层面近期所透露出来的消息也显示,由于物价指数仍处高位未来一段时间从紧的货币政策仍将继续,因此也引发市场由于流动性收紧对于实体经济影响从而出现衰退而忧心忡忡。不过虽然宏观层面调控仍将继续,但是从微观层面讲,随着下半年几大节日的临近养殖需求将迎来传统的旺季,这将给一直平稳趋弱的饲料原料市场带来回暖的契机,当然这种预期仍是建立在中国经济不会出现大的滑坡的假设基础上。 CPI index has always been a pain in the minds of domestic leaders. Although the central bank has been tightening monetary policy in the first half of this year, the current price hike in July due to the rise in pork prices caused by the slaughter of live pigs has not been effective. Difficult to inflection point. The recent revelation at the policy level also shows that tight monetary policy will continue as the price index is still at a high level in the near future, thus causing the market to be worried about the recession caused by liquidity tightening on the real economy. However, although the macro-level regulation and control will continue, from a micro-perspective, as the near breeding needs of several major festivals in the second half of the year will usher in a traditional peak season, this will bring a warming opportunity for the feed raw materials market, which has been steadily weaker, Of course, this expectation is still based on the assumption that there will be no major economic decline in China.