合理预期理论产生于60年代中期,当时是以反凯恩斯主义面目出现的一个现代货币主义学派的分支,近年来逐渐发展为一个独立的学派,并开始走上大学讲坛、进入官方机构。这一学派的主要代表人物有芝加哥大学经济学教授卢卡斯(R.Lucas)、罗彻斯特大学的巴罗(R.Barro)和罗斯(M.Rush)、麻省理工学院的费歇尔(S.Fischer)、明尼苏达大学的华莱士(N.Wallace)和萨金特(T.J.Sagant)等人。其主要论著有:《预期和货币中性》(卢卡斯,1972)、《合理预期和货币政策的作用》(巴 The Theory of Rational Expectations was born in the mid-1960s as a branch of the modern monetarist school based on anti-Keynesianism. In recent years, it gradually developed into an independent school and began to move into the university forum and into official institutions. The main representatives of this school are R. Lucas, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, R. Barro and M. Rush at the University of Rochester, S. Fischer, University of Minnesota, N. Wallace and TJ Sagant. His major publications include “Expectations and Monetary Neutrality” (Lucas, 1972), "Proper Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy