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汇率改革以来,人民币逐渐升值,这对广东出口加工业产生了较大影响。本文通过对人民币实际有效汇率、广东机电产品进口、出口总额的月度数据进行处理,利用协整分析和向量自回归等计量工具,验证了实际有效汇率对广东机电产品贸易的影响。结果表明,本币升值对广东机电产品进出口有一定影响,并在金融危机中被放大,但总体上广东机电产品进出口对汇率变动的弹性不大。
Since the exchange rate reform, the RMB has gradually appreciated, which has had a significant impact on the export processing industry in Guangdong. This paper verifies the impact of real effective exchange rate on the trade of electromechanical products in Guangdong by processing the monthly real data of Renminbi effective exchange rate, import and export volume of electromechanical products in Guangdong, using co-integration analysis and vector autoregulation. The results show that the appreciation of the local currency has some impact on the import and export of electromechanical products in Guangdong and is magnified during the financial crisis. However, on the whole, the import and export of electromechanical products in Guangdong are not more flexible for the exchange rate changes.