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本文研究广东省经济增长过程中碳排放量变化的驱动因素。首先利用“逐层”LMDI法对广东省1995~2012年碳排放量的变化进行因素分解。基于LMDI分解的结果,扩展了Tapio脱钩指数,对广东省碳排放的脱钩状态进行分阶段分析,并与全国碳排放的脱钩程度进行对比分析,得出主要结论:①经济增长是广东省碳排放量增加的主要拉动因素,而能源强度的降低是主要的抑制因素;②各产业尤其是工业能源利用效率的提高是促使生产部门能源强度降低的主要因素;③能源利用效率的提高是规模以上工业部门能源强度降低的主要因素,而且五个关键行业(非金属矿物制品业,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,电力、热力的生产和供应业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,通用设备制造业)能源利用效率的提高对规模以上工业整体能源强度降低的贡献份额达70.5%;④1995~2012年,广东省碳排放与经济增长间的脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主,广东省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩程度低于全国整体水平。
This article studies the drivers of changes in carbon emissions in the course of economic growth in Guangdong Province. First of all, the “layer by layer” LMDI method was used to factor the change of carbon emissions in Guangdong from 1995 to 2012. Based on the results of the LMDI decomposition, the Tapio decoupling index was expanded to analyze the decoupling state of Guangdong’s carbon emissions in phases and to make a comparative analysis with the decoupling degree of the national carbon emissions. The main conclusions were drawn as follows: ①The economic growth is the carbon emission in Guangdong Province Increase of the main driving factors, while the reduction of energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor; ② industries, especially the improvement of industrial energy efficiency is to promote the energy intensity of the production sector to reduce the main factors; ③ energy efficiency is increased above-scale industries The key factors contributing to the reduction of energy intensity in the sector and the five key industries (non-metallic mineral products, petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing, power and heat production and supply, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, general equipment manufacturing ) The increase of energy efficiency contributes 70.5% of the contribution of the overall energy intensity reduction of above-scale industries; ④The decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth in Guangdong Province from decoupling to decoupling in 1995 to 2012 is the main factor, while the carbon emissions and economic growth in Guangdong The degree of decoupling is lower than the national overall level.