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目的定量评价洞庭湖区血吸虫病感染风险。方法收集洞庭湖区血吸虫病防治工作最新统计资料。采用系统动力学方法和GIS空间技术,以人水相互作用机理为主线,计算湖区血吸虫病综合感染风险程度。结果疫水扩散和涉水活动与区域血吸虫病疫情相关,且经济社会因素在人水相互作用机理中发挥着越来越重要的作用;在空间分析中,人类行为和疫水扩散两类风险在综合风险评价中所占权重分别为0.59和0.41,湖区有15个地区综合感染风险位于60%~80%的峰值区内。结论洞庭湖区血吸虫病综合感染风险程度存在峰值区,这些区域是血防工作的重点地区,应加强以社会措施为主导的防治工作。
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the risk of schistosomiasis infection in Dongting Lake. Methods The latest statistics of schistosomiasis control in Dongting Lake were collected. Using system dynamics method and GIS space technology, taking the human-water interaction mechanism as the main line, the risk of schistosomiasis integrated infection in the lake area was calculated. Results The dispersal and wading activities of infectious water were related to the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in the region, and economic and social factors played an increasingly important role in the mechanism of human-water interaction. In the spatial analysis, the two types of risks of human behavior and dissemination of water were The comprehensive risk assessment accounted for 0.59 and 0.41 respectively, and the risk of SARS in 15 areas of the lake was within 60% -80% of the peak area. Conclusion There is a peak area of the risk of schistosomiasis infection in Dongting Lake. These areas are the key areas for blood-protection work. Prevention and treatment should be strengthened with social measures as the leading factor.