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分析我国铝矿资源未来需求状况,以合理开发与利用国内外铝矿资源。在介绍我国铝矿资源供需现状的基础上,对影响我国铝矿资源需求的主要因素进行分析,然后利用BP神经网络建立铝矿资源需求情景分析模型,并利用1990—2011年的国际铝价、我国原铝消费强度、我国原铝产量以及我国经济发展趋势相关数据进行测算,得出2014—2020年3个不同情景下我国对铝矿资源的需求。结果表明,我国铝矿资源储量丰富,但需求量大,供需矛盾尖锐。随着我国工业化水平的不断提高和经济的持续发展,我国铝矿资源进口依存度将逐年提高,到2020年将达到50%以上。
Analysis of the future demand for aluminum resources in China, in order to rational development and utilization of aluminum resources at home and abroad. Based on the introduction of the status quo of supply and demand of aluminum resources in our country, the paper analyzes the main factors that affect the demand of aluminum resources in our country, and then uses BP neural network to establish the scenario analysis model of aluminum resource demand. By using the international aluminum prices from 1990 to 2011, China’s primary aluminum consumption intensity, China’s primary aluminum production as well as China’s economic development trend of the relevant data were calculated, come to three different scenarios in 2014-2020 China’s demand for aluminum resources. The results show that China has rich reserves of aluminum resources, but the demand is huge and the contradiction between supply and demand is sharp. With the continuous improvement of China’s industrialization and sustainable economic development, China’s dependence on the import of aluminum resources will increase year by year, reaching more than 50% by 2020.