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采用河南省1993～2009年出口额、FDI与GDP的时间序列数据,运用Johansen-Juselius协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解的计量方法,实证研究河南省出口贸易、FDI对其经济增长的影响。研究结果显示:出口贸易与GDP、FDI与GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系和显著的Granger因果关系;出口贸易、FDI对河南省经济增长都有较强的促进作用,它们对经济增长的脉冲响应总体上都是正向响应,但出口比FDI对经济增长的推动作用更强一些。最后根据研究结果提出加快出口、FDI增长以带动GDP增长的建议。
Using the time series data of exports, FDI and GDP from 1993 to 2009 in Henan Province, this paper uses the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method to study the impact of Henan’s export trade and FDI on its economic growth . The results show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship and a significant Granger causality between export trade and GDP, FDI and GDP. Export trade and FDI have a strong role in promoting economic growth in Henan Province, and their impulse to economic growth The responses are generally positive responses, but exports are more powerful than FDI in promoting economic growth. According to the results of the study, some suggestions are put forward to speed up the export and increase the FDI in order to promote the GDP growth.