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[目的]预测上海市肾综合征出血热的发病趋势。[方法]利用上海市肾综合征出血热发病资料,建立灰色模型和指数平滑模型来预测本市未来肾综合征出血热的发病率。[结果]上海地区肾综合征出血热发病率(×10-5)的灰色预测模型为:=(1.49-2.3669/0.5823)e-0.5823t+2.3669/0.5823,拟合检验显示本模型精度等级为一级,能够较好地预测上海市肾综合征出血热发病率;Holter-Winters双参数指数平滑法预测的最小误差平方和与均方根误差最小,通过D-W检验,预测效果较好。[结论]两种方法均可应用于上海市肾综合征出血热发病率的预测。
[Objective] To forecast the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shanghai. [Methods] Using the data of Shanghai Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, a gray model and exponential smoothing model were established to predict the incidence of future hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in our city. [Results] The gray prediction model for the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shanghai (× 10-5) was: (1.49-2.3669 / 0.5823) e-0.5823t + 2.3669 / 0.5823. The fitting test showed that the accuracy of this model was Level, can better predict the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shanghai; Holter-Winters two-parameter exponential smoothing method to minimize the square error and root mean square error of the smallest error, by DW test, the prediction effect is better. [Conclusion] Both methods can be applied to predict the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shanghai.