粘虫(Mythimna separata Walker)是我国粮食作物的重要害虫。我国江淮及黄淮流域是一代粘虫发生区,粘虫全年发生四(或五)个世代,以第一代发生数量最多,春季4、5月间为害小麦。该区在根治我国粘虫危害上具有战略地位。决定一代粘虫发生程度的主导因素,是越冬代蛾量迁入的多少。因此组建该区越冬代蛾最及迁入期的预测模式,有着特别重要的现实意义。 目前在国内,关于粘虫发生期和发生量预测,多属中、短期,且以短期预测为主。据研 Mythimna separata Walker is an important pest of food crops in our country. China’s Jianghuai and Huang-Huai Valley is a generation of armyworm areas, armyworms occur four (or five) generations throughout the year, with the largest number of the first generation, April and May spring wheat. The district has a strategic position to cure the harm of Mythimna distincts in China. The dominant factor that determines the occurrence of a generation of armyworm is the amount of migratory winter moth. Therefore, it is of particular and important practical significance to form the forecast model of the most overwintering moth in the area during its transitional period. At present, in China, the prediction of occurrence and occurrence of armyworm is mostly in the medium and short term, and mainly based on short-term forecast. According to research