近地表大气和陆表温度的升高已经成为一个不争的事实,同时这种趋势还将持续下去。全球变暖不仅改变了热量条件,还改变了水分条件。水热条件可以综合地反映为潜在蒸散量,进而影响植被生产力,而同化组织是植物对环境变化最为敏感的部位。本研究跟踪梭梭同化枝在2010年6—9月的生长动态,测定同化枝的光响应曲线以计算同化枝潜在同化速率,并利用气象数据及Hargreaves公式计算潜在蒸散量。通过分析梭梭同化枝相对生长速率与潜在同化速率,潜在蒸散量与潜在同化速率之间的数量关系,建立了仅仅需要日最低、最高和平均温度,以及太阳总辐射数据,就可以估算梭梭同化枝相对生长速率的简单方法,经统计检验基本可行(P=0.016)。应用该种方法和1960—2000年6—9月本地月平均气象数据,讨论了在全球变暖背景不同的升温模式下,梭梭同化枝相对生长速率变幅的方向和大小的不确定性,由此表明了荒漠生态系统对全球变化响应的复杂性。 The near-surface atmosphere and the increase in surface temperature have become an indisputable fact, and this trend will continue. Global warming not only changed the heat conditions, but also changed the water conditions. Hydrothermal conditions can be comprehensively reflected as potential evapotranspirations, thereby affecting the productivity of vegetation, and the assimilation of plants is the most sensitive to environmental changes in the site. In this study, we tracked the growth dynamics of Haloxylon ammodendron from June to September in 2010, measured the light response curve of the assimilation branch to calculate the potential assimilation rate of the assimilation branch, and calculated the potential evapotranspiration using the meteorological data and Hargreaves formula. By analyzing the relationship between relative growth rate, potential assimilation rate, latent evapotranspiration and potential assimilation rate of assimilative branch of Haloxylon ammodendron, we established a method to estimate Haloxylon ammodendron only by daily minimum, maximum and average temperature and solar radiation data The simple method of assimilating the relative growth rate of branches is basically feasible by statistical test (P = 0.016). Using this method and the local monthly average meteorological data from June to September in 1960-2000, we discuss the uncertainty of direction and magnitude of the relative growth rate amplitude of the assimilating branches of Haloxylon ammodendron under different warming modes with global warming background. This shows the complexity of the response of desert ecosystems to global changes.