论文部分内容阅读
引入能源结构优化系数和产业结构优化系数改进了传统的环境负荷模型,构建IIPAT模型,设定了三种情景分析我国未来低碳发展情况。其中,基准情景无法实现我国低碳经济发展目标,也不能完成2020年减排承诺,且能源消费量较大,产生的碳排放较多;政策情景是我国低碳经济发展比较现实、且能完成减排承诺的情景,但也不能实现碳强度降低50%的目标;强化低碳情景能够较理想的实现我国低碳经济发展目标,需要低碳技术创新得到突破。
The introduction of the energy structure optimization coefficient and industrial structure optimization coefficient improved the traditional environmental load model, constructed the IIPAT model and set three scenarios to analyze the future low-carbon development in China. Among them, the baseline scenario can not achieve our low-carbon economic development goals, nor can we complete the 2020 emission reduction commitments, and energy consumption is larger, resulting in more carbon emissions; policy scenario is the development of China’s low-carbon economy more realistic and can be completed Emission reduction commitments, but it can not achieve the goal of reducing carbon intensity by 50%. To strengthen the low-carbon scenario can better achieve the goal of low-carbon economy development in our country and require breakthroughs in low-carbon technology innovation.