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目的建立一种基于生理毒代动力学(PBTK)模型和剂量-反应模型来评价职业暴露导致的健康风险的定量方法,为我国职业健康风险的定量研究提供理论依据。方法利用生理毒代动力学模型,模拟预测苯暴露人群在环境暴露水平下有害物质的体内分布转化代谢数据。将得到的内剂量数据(如,总代谢量)代入适当的内剂量-反应模型,求解致癌风险值。通过将由此方法计算得到的两个流行病学实例的风险值与实际白血病发病率进行比较,来验证本方法。结果由本方法计算得到,中国苯暴露工人的致癌风险值为1.52×10-4～1.19×10-3,土耳其制鞋工人的致癌风险值为1.34×10-3～2.47×10-3。而这两个职业暴露人群的白血病实际发病率分别为1.05×10-3和1.79×10-3。结论本方法可以定量评估对人体有害的职业暴露危险源,比较准确地预测暴露工人的致癌概率,可为职业伤害的预防和管理提供科学依据。
Objective To establish a quantitative method based on the PBTK model and dose-response model to evaluate the health risks caused by occupational exposure, and provide a theoretical basis for the quantitative study of occupational health risk in China. Methods Physiological toxicokinetic models were used to simulate and predict the in vivo metabolism of benign substances in benzene exposure exposed to environmental exposure. The resulting internal dose data (eg, total metabolites) is substituted into the appropriate internal dose-response model to solve the carcinogenic risk value. The method was validated by comparing the risk values of the two epidemiological examples calculated by this method with the actual incidence of leukemia. Results The calculated results showed that the carcinogenic risk of benzene exposure workers in China was 1.52 × 10-4 ~ 1.19 × 10-3, and that of Turkish footwear workers was 1.34 × 10-3 ~ 2.47 × 10-3. The actual incidence of leukemia in these two occupational exposures was 1.05 × 10-3 and 1.79 × 10-3, respectively. Conclusion This method can quantitatively evaluate the hazard sources of occupational exposure to human beings and predict the probability of carcinogenicity of exposed workers more accurately. It can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and management of occupational injuries.