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通过对研究区的气候、水文气象物理因子的分析，挑选出与月径流关系最好的物理因子作为预报因子；利用逐步回归分析和预报集成方法建立月径流预报模型．模型应用结果表明，预报精度满足生产要求．
Through the analysis of the climatic and hydro-meteorological physical factors in the study area, the physical factors with the best relationship with monthly runoff were selected as the forecasting factors. The monthly runoff forecast model was established by stepwise regression analysis and integrated forecasting method. The application results of the model show that the forecast accuracy meets the production requirements.