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2007年4月爆发的美国次贷危机波及了全球金融市场与实体经济,并引发了世界性金融危机,中国这一新兴市场国家同样受到了不同程度的影响。基于次贷危机发生前后两年(2005年至2009年)我国东部长三角地区与中部省级地区经济与金融统计数据,选取多维度指标体系,采用Granger检验、VAR模型、方差分解和脉冲响应函数等方法定量分析危机前、后这两个地区经济金融之间因果关系的变化,研究结果表明:“溢出效应”是本次次贷危机下长三角地区影响中部地区经济发展的主要途径。
The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in April 2007 touched upon the global financial markets and the real economy and triggered a worldwide financial crisis. China, an emerging market country, has also suffered from varying degrees of impact. Based on the economic and financial statistics of the Yangtze River Delta and Central China in the eastern part of China before and after the subprime mortgage crisis two years (2005 to 2009), the multi-dimensional index system was selected. The Granger test, VAR model, variance decomposition and impulse response function And other methods to quantitatively analyze the causal relationship between the two regions before and after the crisis. The results show that “spillover effect” is the main way to affect the economic development in the Yangtze River Delta in the Yangtze River Delta during the subprime mortgage crisis.