引言所谓地震预报 ,指的是预先知道地震的震中、震级和发生时间。亦可换言之 ,是在某种前提下 ,预测地震的发生。把概率用于预测的理由有二 :其一 ,是因为地震现象本身受到不确定因素的影响 ;其二 ,是由于我们所掌握的观测预报信息存在着很多的不确定性。因此 ,进行预报的实际 Introduction The so-called earthquake prediction refers to knowing in advance the epicenter, magnitude and time of the earthquake. In other words, it is possible to predict the occurrence of an earthquake under some sort of premise. There are two reasons why the probability is used for forecasting: First, because the earthquake phenomenon itself is affected by uncertainties; secondly, there is a lot of uncertainty in the information we have about the forecast. Therefore, the actual forecast