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目的分析发热伴血小板减少综合征(FTLS)季节性特征。方法 FTLS疫情资料来源于国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统,应用集中度、季节指数和圆形分布法分析FTLS季节性分布特征。结果 2009-2014年,信阳市共报告FTLS病例2 901例,发病呈逐年上升趋势(Z=23.822,P<0.001)。2009-2014年各年度FTLS集中度M值分别为0.564、0.557、0.636、0.645、0.561和0.566,平均值为0.585。不同月份和季度的季节指数均不相同。5月份季节指数最大,为292.04%;2月份季节指数最小,为0.41%。第1-4季度各季度季节指数分别为5.24%、213.03%、142.71%和39.02%。2009-2014年信阳市各年份FTLS发病均存在集中趋势(雷氏检验P值均<0.05),6年间信阳市FTLS流行高峰期为4月27日-8月25日。应用Watson-Williams检验对不同年份的平均角珔α进行检验,F=7.036,P<0.05,不同年份FTLS发病高峰日不完全相同。实际流行高峰期与圆形分布拟合的流行高峰期开始时间基本一致,从4月下旬或5月上旬开始,但持续时间延长,最长持续至10月上旬。结论信阳市FTLS发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰出现在第2季度,可用圆形分布法来粗略估计其流行高峰期。
Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (FTLS). Methods The epidemic data of FTLS were derived from the National Disease Surveillance Information Reporting Management System. The seasonal distribution of FTLS was analyzed by using the concentration index, seasonal index and circular distribution method. Results A total of 2 901 FTLS cases were reported in Xinyang from 2009 to 2014, with a rising trend year by year (Z = 23.822, P <0.001). The annual values of FTLS concentration in 2009-2014 were 0.564, 0.557, 0.636, 0.645, 0.561 and 0.566, respectively, with an average of 0.585. Seasonal indices vary by month and season. May the largest season index, 292.04%; February the smallest season index, 0.41%. The Q1-Q4 seasonal indices were 5.24%, 213.03%, 142.71% and 39.02% respectively. In 2009-2014, the incidence of FTLS in all years in Xinyang City was concentrated (P <0.05). The peak of FTLS prevalence in Xinyang from April 27 to August 25 was 6 years. The Watson-Williams test was used to test the average angle 珔 α in different years, F = 7.036, P <0.05. The peak incidence of FTLS in different years was not exactly the same. The onset of the peak of the epidemic between the actual epidemic peak and the circular distribution was basically the same, beginning in late April or early May, but the duration was extended up to the first ten days of October. Conclusion The incidence of FTLS in Xinyang City is obviously seasonal. The peak incidence peak appears in the second quarter. The circular distribution method can be used to roughly estimate the epidemic peak.