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本文利用相关数据建立了一个房地产需求和供给的状态空间模型,进而测算房地产基础价值,研究结果表明目前房地产价格对房地产基础价值已经有较大程度的偏离,1998年1季度~2010年1季度的平均偏离率已经达到了60.8%。本文还通过实证分析,考察了中国房地产价格与居民可支配收入和房地产建造成本之间的关系。实证研究发现,各地的房地产价格与其居民收入水平是密切相关的,但各地的居民人均可支配收入水平对房地产价格的影响差异并不十分大。而房地产的建造成本对房地产价格的影响差异却十分明显,表明各地的土地价格在推动房价的上升起了重大作用。
In this paper, we use the data to establish a state space model of real estate demand and supply, and then measure the basic value of real estate. The results show that the current real estate prices have a greater degree of deviation from the basic real estate value. From 1Q 1998 to 1Q 2010 The average deviation rate has reached 60.8%. Through empirical analysis, this paper examines the relationship between China’s real estate prices and residents disposable income and real estate construction costs. Empirical studies have found that the real estate prices are closely related to the income level of their residents, but the differences in per capita disposable income levels across the country on real estate prices are not very large. However, the difference in the impact of real estate construction costs on real estate prices is very clear, indicating that the price of land around the country has played a significant role in pushing up housing prices.