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关于财政分权如何影响经济增长的大量实证研究结果是相互矛盾的,其主要原因在于研究方法中存在两个不足:一是建模所依据的基础模型中只包含了财政支出分权变量而没有包含财政收入分权变量;二是在数据选择上没有考虑最优财政分权度相对稳定的必要性。由此出发,本文提出了一个改进的实证研究基本模型,以及数据选择的限制性条件。运用这一结果,本文根据中印国情和经济发展的特点建立了一组逐步加入两类可控变量的多元线性回归模型,实证研究了中印财政分权对经济增长的影响。结果显示,1990年代末至今,中印的财政支出分权都促进了经济增长;而财政收入分权的经济增长效应则不同:中国的财政收入分权阻碍了经济增长,印度的财政收入分权促进了经济增长。
There are two contradictions in the empirical research on how fiscal decentralization affects economic growth. The main reason is that there are two deficiencies in the research method: First, the basic model on which the model is based includes only the fiscal decentralization variables without Including the decentralization of fiscal revenue variables; the second is the data selection did not consider the optimal relative degree of fiscal decentralization of the need for stability. Based on this, this paper presents an improved basic model of empirical research and the restrictive conditions of data selection. Using this result, this paper establishes a set of multiple linear regression models that gradually add two types of controllable variables according to the national conditions and economic development in China and India, and empirically studies the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth in China and India. The results show that since the late 1990s, the fiscal decentralization in China and India have contributed to economic growth. However, the economic growth effect of fiscal decentralization has been different: China’s fiscal decentralization has hindered economic growth and India’s fiscal decentralization Promote economic growth.