论文部分内容阅读
为准确评价水资源的脆弱性程度,鉴于组合赋权法精度不足等缺点,提出了基于概率论的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合方法,并应用于河南省某市2013年的水资源脆弱性综合评价中。结果表明,某市2013年的水资源脆弱性评价等级为较不脆弱,与实际情况一致。改进后的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合随机评价方法采用了组合赋权法和相对隶属度综合确定权重,从指标间和指标内部两个方面确定指标权重,使评价结果更加趋于合理。研究成果可为水资源管理和开发提供依据。
In order to accurately evaluate the degree of vulnerability of water resources, Bayesian formula and fuzzy recognition coupling method based on probability theory are proposed in view of the shortcomings of the lack of accuracy of the combination weighting method and applied to the water vulnerability of a certain city in Henan Province in 2013 Comprehensive evaluation. The results show that a certain level of vulnerability assessment of a city in 2013 is less vulnerable, which is consistent with the actual situation. The improved Bayesian formula and fuzzy recognition coupled with random evaluation method adopt combination weighting method and relative membership degree to determine the weight synthetically, and determine the index weight from two aspects of index and index, so that the evaluation result tends to be more reasonable. The research results can provide the basis for water resources management and development.