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目的估计哈尔滨市男男性行为人群(MSM)的规模,为制定和实施有针对性的艾滋病高危人群干预策略提供科学依据。方法利用捕获再捕获法、除数法和乘数法,对哈尔滨市MSM的规模进行估计。结果捕获再捕获法估计哈尔滨市MSM规模为9197人(8520~9874人),MSM在18~77岁男性人口中比例为0.28%;除数法估计哈尔滨市浴池类MSM规模为4311人,酒吧类人群规模为3689人,所有活动场所内MSM规模为7381人;乘数法估计哈尔滨市MSM规模为14 812人。结论同时使用捕获再捕获法、除数法和乘数法进行人群规模估计,可以整合资源、节约时间,各种方法的结果可以相互验证,可信度高。
Objective To estimate the size of MSM in Harbin and provide a scientific basis for formulating and implementing targeted intervention strategies for people at high risk of AIDS. Methods Using capture and re-capture method, divisor method and multiplier method, the MSM scale of Harbin is estimated. Results The capture-recapture method estimated that the MSM size of Harbin was 9,197 (8520-9874). The MSM was 0.28% of the male population aged 18-77. The divisor method was used to estimate the bath pool MSM size of Harbin was 4311, and the bars With a scale of 3,689 and a total MSM size of 7,381 in all venues. The multiplier method estimates that the MSM size of Harbin is 14,812. Conclusions At the same time, using the catch-and-recapture method, the divisor method and the multiplier method to estimate the population size can integrate resources and save time. The results of various methods can be mutually verified and the credibility is high.