论文部分内容阅读
目的分析浙江省肾综合征出血热疫情的流行病学时空特征,探讨其时空变化特点,识别疾病高发地区,为肾综合征出血热的防控提供参考。方法收集2005—2014年浙江省肾综合征出血热病例,采用时间、空间和时空联合分析方法,分析浙江省肾综合征出血热分布特征。结果 2005—2014年,浙江省累计报告肾综合征出血热5 712例,年平均报告发病率为1.34/10万。发病呈明显季节性特征,每年5—7月和11月至下年1月是发病的2个高峰期。除2010年外,其余年份各县(区)年发病率均存在空间相关性,空间自相关呈逐年下降趋势。2005—2014年时空扫描共发现2个时空聚集区,聚集时间分别为2005年1月持续至2009年6月,2011年9月持续至2013年8月,聚集区均位于浙江东中部地区,2次聚集区空间分布上呈现扩大趋势。结论浙江省肾综合征出血热发病存在时空聚集性,在高发地区应继续做好周边扩散的控制,防止出现疫情聚集。对已有聚集区应加大联防联控,采取必要的防控措施。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Zhejiang Province, discuss the characteristics of its temporal and spatial variation, identify the areas with high incidence of disease and provide reference for the prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Methods The cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2005 to 2014 in Zhejiang Province were collected. The distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang Province were analyzed by time, space and time-space analysis. Results From 2005 to 2014, 5 712 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome were reported in Zhejiang Province. The annual average incidence was reported as 1.34 per 100 000. The incidence was significantly seasonal characteristics, annual May-July and November to January next year is the onset of 2 peak. Except for 2010, the annual incidence rates of all counties (districts) in the remaining years are spatially correlated, and the spatial autocorrelation shows a declining trend year by year. Two space-time gathering areas were found in space-time scanning from 2005 to 2014. The gathering time ranged from January 2005 to June 2009 and from September 2011 to August 2013. The gathering areas were all located in the eastern part of Zhejiang Province. 2 The spatial distribution of sub-gathering area shows an expanding trend. Conclusions There is spatiotemporal aggregation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang Province. In the high incidence areas, the control of peripheral proliferation should be continued to prevent the occurrence of epidemic aggregation. The existing gathering area should be increased joint prevention and control, take the necessary prevention and control measures.