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苹果星裂壳孢果腐病菌是近年来在美国华盛顿州苹果、梨果实上新发现的危险性病原真菌。迄今为止,该病菌在我国尚未分布,是我国关注的具有重要检疫意义的有害生物。2008年我国广东口岸在全国首次从美国华盛顿输华苹果海运货物中截获该病菌,迄今我国口岸累计从进境华盛顿苹果中截获该病菌12批次。本文采用专家评判的生物学建模方法,确立了其适生性评判标准,运用ArcGIS分析其在我国的适生范围和适生程度。根据逐月和全年分析预测结果,苹果星裂壳孢果腐病菌在我国适生范围广阔,适生程度偏高,我国苹果主产区(渤海湾、黄河故道和秦岭北麓、西北和西南高地)和梨主产区(河北、山东、辽宁等地)绝大部分为高度适生。为保护国内生产安全,检验检疫部门须提高警惕、严格检疫,严防苹果星裂壳孢果腐病菌的入侵。
Apple aspergillus sporidiosis is a newly discovered dangerous pathogenic fungus in the apple and pear fruit of Washington State in recent years. So far, the pathogen has not been distributed in our country and it is a pest of significance to our country that has important quarantine significance. In 2008, Guangdong’s port of China intercepted the bacteria for the first time in the country from Washington, DC, to deliver the goods to China. So far, 12 batches of this bacterium were intercepted in our ports of entry in Washington. In this paper, the biological modeling method of expert judgment was used to establish the criteria of fitness evaluation. ArcGIS was used to analyze its fitness range and fitness level in China. According to the monthly and annual analysis and forecasting results, apple spores Pythium apfisia in our country has a wide range of suitable habitats, suitable for a high degree of fitness, China’s main producing areas of apple (Bohai Bay, the ancient course of the Yellow River and Qinling Mountains, Northwest and Southwest Heights) and pear main producing areas (Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning and other places) for the vast majority of highly suitable. In order to protect the domestic production safety, inspection and quarantine departments must be vigilant and strictly quarantine to prevent the invasion of Asclepias sp.