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目的探索用同伴推动抽样法(respondent-driven sampling,RDS)结合乘数法进行男男性接触者(men who have sex with men,MSM)基数估计的可行性,为当地疫情估计及制定针对MSM的艾滋病防治策略提供科学依据。方法2006年采用RDS招募在宁夏某城市连续居住3个月以上的MSM,并进行面对面的问卷调查,获得其特定时间点击目标网站人数的比例(1/m),通过RDS分析软件进行权重处理;结合目标网站特定时间的点击数和网络调查获得网络基数(r);采用乘数法(N=r×m)估计当地MSM的规模。结果2006年6—8月共招募90名MSM参加调查。被调查的MSM访问目标网站比例为49.0%(90%CI:35.9%~66.0%),访问目标网站的目标人群基数为1 653人,估计该城市MSM为3 372(90%CI:2 513~4 612)人,占该市15~49岁男性人口的1.20%(90%CI:0.9%~1.64%)。结论RDS结合乘数法对MSM进行基数估计是可行的,应进一步研究如何提高MSM的应答率。
OBJECTIVE: To explore the feasibility of assessing the base number of men who have sex with men (MSM) using the respondent-driven sampling (RDS) combined with the multiplier method to estimate the local epidemic situation and to develop AIDS-related Prevention and control strategies to provide a scientific basis. Methods In 2006, RDS recruited MSM who lived in a city of Ningxia for more than 3 months consecutively and conducted a face-to-face questionnaire survey to obtain the proportion of 1 / m of the number of target website clicks at a specific time and weighted by RDS analysis software; The network cardinal number (r) is obtained by combining the number of clicks and network surveys of the target website at a specific time; the size of the local MSM is estimated by a multiplier method (N = r × m). Results From June to August in 2006, 90 MSM were recruited. The surveyed MSM visited 49.0% of the target websites (90% CI: 35.9% ~ 66.0%) and the target population of the target site was 1 653. The MSM of the surveyed city was 3 372 (90% CI: 4 612) people, accounting for 1.20% (90% CI: 0.9% ~ 1.64%) of the city’s male population aged 15-49. Conclusions It is feasible that RDS combined with multiplier method to estimate MSM base station should further study how to improve MSM response rate.