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2012年生猪市场最值得全国养猪人关注的四个热点问题,也是决定市场行情走势的关键问题:疫病、宏观经济、粮食价格和母猪补栏积极性。疫病风险随时可能对养猪生产和市场产生巨大冲击,宏观经济形势的好坏直接关系到猪肉的消费和政策调控,母猪的补栏积极性直接决定后期的存栏结构和供应,而粮食价格将决定饲料成本、养猪成本的变化。此外,国家调控政策,猪肉进口,越来越多的外界资本进入以及行业内龙头企业的快速布局扩张等等,都在直接或间接地影响着生猪产业发展格局。到底是什么原因造成今年猪价的持续低迷,波诡云谲的生猪市场到底有无规律可循,未来猪价是否能够让养殖户看到希望?本刊邀请数位行业内资深人士,试图从影响生猪价格的一些关键点进行分析、探讨,无意断定或预测,仅供参考。
The four hot issues that most deserve attention of pig producers in the country for the live pig market in 2012 are also the key issues that determine the market trend: epidemics, macroeconomy, food prices and the motivation of sow pig breeding. Risk of disease may have a huge impact on pig production and the market at any time, the macroeconomic situation is directly related to the consumption of pork and policy control, sow’s enthusiasm for compensation directly determines the post-retirement structure and supply, and food prices will determine Feed costs, changes in pig costs. In addition, national regulatory policies, pork imports, more and more outside capital to enter the industry as well as the rapid expansion of the leading enterprises in the expansion and so on, are directly or indirectly affect the pig industry development pattern. In the end is what causes this year’s pig price continued downturn, wavey pig market in the end there is no law to follow, the future price of pig farmers can see hope? This magazine invited senior experts in the digital industry, trying to influence Pig prices some of the key points for analysis, discussion, no intention to determine or predict, for reference purposes only.