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采用统计学方法,分析研究了环境气象条件对落叶松球蚜(Adelges laricis Vall)发生发展的影响,并进行落叶松球蚜危害面积的气象预测预报,对林业病虫灾害的预防工作具有显著的指导意义。研究表明:甘肃小陇山林区落叶松球蚜性喜温暖干燥的气候环境,上年初秋较高温度环境利于落叶松球蚜营养累积,有利越冬成活率的提高;仲春-初夏温暖、干燥、晴天少雨的天气气候条件,利于虫体增大和干母产卵、若虫孵化,提高蚜虫数量而导致落叶松球蚜大面积发生发展。通过落叶松球蚜危害面积气象预测预报模型历史回代检验,16年预报危害面积与实际危害面积平均绝对误差百分率3.8%,绝对误差百分率5.0%以内预报准确率81%;绝对误差百分率10.0%以内预报准确率94%。对2008、2009、2010年三年落叶松球蚜危害面积进行试报检验,3a试报面积分别为16.8km2、16.1km2、16.07km2,平均绝对误差百分率2.37%,均在5.0%以内,试报准确率达100%,预报效果极为理想,可以为林业病虫灾害的预防工作提供指导。
A statistical method was used to analyze the impact of environmental and meteorological conditions on the occurrence and development of Adelses laricis Vall and the forecast of the damage area of A. larvae was significant and significant for the prevention of forestry pest and disease Guiding significance. The results showed that the warm and dry climatic environment of L. auritus in Xiaolongshan forest area in Gansu Province was favorable to the accumulation of larch aphid in the early autumn of last year, which was beneficial to the survival of the overwintering survival rate. Zhongchun-early summer was warm, dry and sunny A few rainy weather conditions conducive to the growth of parasites and dry mother spawning, nymphs hatch, raising the number of aphids led to Larvae aphid large area development. Through the larch aphid harm area meteorological forecasting model history back to the test, 16-year forecast hazard area and actual damage area average absolute error percentage of 3.8%, the absolute error of less than 5.0% forecast accuracy rate of 81%; absolute error percentage of 10.0% Forecast accuracy rate of 94%. The tested area of larch aphid in three years in 2008, 2009 and 2010 were tested and reported. The areas of 3a test were respectively 16.8km 2, 16.1km 2 and 16.07km 2, the average percentage of absolute error was 2.37%, all within 5.0% Accuracy rate of 100%, the forecast effect is extremely ideal, can provide guidance for forestry pest disaster prevention.